Senegal’s domestic gasoline reserves shall be primarily used to supply electricity. Authorities anticipate that home fuel infrastructure tasks will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, offered there is not a delay. The monetization of those important vitality assets is at the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global expertise group Wärtsilä carried out in-depth studies that analyse the economic impact of the various gas-to-power methods out there to Senegal. Two very different technologies are competing to satisfy the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very vital system price variations between the two major gas-to-power technologies the country is at present contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, fuel engines are actually significantly better suited than mixed cycle gasoline turbines to harness energy from Senegal’s new gas sources cost-effectively, the study reveals. Total value differences between the two technologies might attain as a lot as 480 million USD till 2035 relying on situations.
Two competing and really different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art energy mix models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised energy situations to determine the fee optimum approach to deliver new generation capability for a specific nation, reveals that ICE and CCGT technologies present significant price differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program running to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally confirmed and reliable, they are very totally different by method of the profiles in which they can operate. CCGT is a technology that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, the place it can perform at 90% load factor at all times. On the other hand, flexible ICE technology can function efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to some other era technologies that may make up the country’s power mix.
In particular our research reveals that when operating in an electricity network of limited measurement similar to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, counting on CCGTs to considerably expand the community capacity would be extraordinarily expensive in all potential situations.
Cost variations between the technologies are explained by numerous elements. First of all, sizzling climates negatively influence the output of fuel turbines more than it does that of gas engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated entry to low cost home fuel, the working costs turn into much less impactful than the funding prices. In other phrases, as a end result of low gasoline prices lower working costs, it’s financially sound for the country to rely on ICE energy plants, that are inexpensive to construct.
Technology modularity also plays a key function. Senegal is predicted to require an additional 60-80 MW of technology capacity annually to have the power to meet the rising demand. This is way lower than the capacity of typical CCGTs crops which averages 300-400 MW that have to be inbuilt one go, leading to unnecessary expenditure. Engine energy vegetation, on the other hand, are modular, which means they can be built exactly as and when the country needs them, and further extended when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The mannequin shows that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops on the expense of ICE-gas, it’s going to lead to as much as 240 million dollars of extra cost for the system by 2035. The price distinction between the technologies may even enhance to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal additionally chooses to build new renewable energy capability throughout the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The improvement of fuel infrastructure is a posh and lengthy endeavour. Program delays usually are not uncommon, causing gasoline supply disruptions that can have an enormous monetary impression on the operation of CCGT vegetation.
Nigeria knows something about that. Only last 12 months, significant gas supply points have caused shutdowns at a variety of the country’s largest fuel turbine power crops. Because เกจวัดแรงอัดกระบอกสูบ operate on a continuous combustion process, they require a relentless provide of gas and a steady dispatched load to generate consistent energy output. If the availability is disrupted, shutdowns occur, putting a fantastic pressure on the overall system. ICE-Gas plants then again, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and improve system flexibility. Because of their flexible working profile, they have been in a place to preserve a much higher degree of availability
The study took a deep dive to analyse the monetary impact of 2 years delay in the gasoline infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to take a position into gas engines, the price of gasoline delay can be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in further cost.
Whichever means you have a look at it, new ICE-Gas generation capacity will reduce the whole cost of electrical energy in Senegal in all potential scenarios. If Senegal is to fulfill electrical energy demand progress in a cost-optimal method, a minimum of 300 MW of latest ICE-Gas capability shall be required by 2026.
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